Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
